Investment in gold

01.09.23

Today, many people talk about the investment attractiveness of precious metals, but this area seems inaccessible to the average person to enter the market and difficult to master. In this article, we will try to explain the nature of the gold market and show that everyone can successfully preserve their assets during periods of uncertainty.

Precious metals are chemical elements that are located in the upper crust of our planet. The high price of these resources is due to their rarity, the unique property of reacting poorly to oxidation and corrosion, as well as the significant complexity of their processing. Precious metals immediately attracted humanity with their aesthetic properties, which is why they laid the foundation for jewelry making. On the other hand, these chemical elements have useful chemical properties, so they are widely used in industry (automotive, solar panels, etc.). When talking about precious metals as an investment instrument, we traditionally mean gold, silver, platinum and palladium. Today, the precious metals market is divided between these elements by 30%, 20%, 20% and 20% respectively. The remaining 10% falls into the “other” category (copper and others). This article will analyze the most noble of them — gold.

Gold was once the sole reserve currency in the world economy, and then entered into a synthesis with the US Dollar. Despite the fact that in modern times gold is not part of the global economic system, it continues to gain popularity in the precious metals market.

Investors highlight positive price dynamics during global economic and geopolitical shocks as the main advantage of gold over stocks, bonds or bank deposits[1]. For these reasons, gold is commonly referred to as a “safe haven asset.” Those who do not want to risk their assets by investing in overly volatile instruments during a crisis prefer to store their funds in gold. Moreover, the profitability of gold exceeds bank deposits, since gold prices are positively affected by a decline in industrial production, corporate bankruptcy, increased inflation and political crises[2]. Historically, there has been a positive correlation between the length of the global crisis and an increase in gold prices. Experts also highlight independence from future cash flows as the main advantage of gold[3].

Over five years, the price of one troy ounce (31.1034768 grams) of gold increased by 60.80%, and by 16.06% per year[4]. To understand the reasons for such growth, it is necessary to identify the connection between the dynamics of quotes and events in the international arena. A case in point is the global economic crisis of 2008. At the beginning of the year, the price of gold was 926 US dollars, and reached its peak only on August 1, 2011 — 1825 US dollars (an increase of 197%). Then the price began to decline as the economy began to recover as a result of anti-crisis measures in the leading countries of the world.

A more relevant example is the COVID-19 pandemic. In January 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a state of emergency, the price of gold at that time was 1317 US dollars. Massive lockdowns and restrictions spread across the world, which inevitably created a shock for the economy; investors were afraid of uncertainty and were afraid to invest in companies in view of possible bankruptcy, so they kept their assets in gold. Thus, on August 3, 2020, the price of gold reached its historical peak of 2035 US dollars (an increase of 155%). Next comes another period of economic recovery and price reduction.

Today we are witnessing another crisis cycle in the world. In addition to economic problems such as the green transition, the energy crisis in Western countries, large-scale sanctions against opponents, high global inflation and a slowdown in the automotive industry. Geopolitical shocks are obvious — the Special Military Operation in Ukraine, the support of Ukraine by Western countries and, in general, the confrontation of the Western and non-Western blocs in world politics. This situation leads to the fact that the price of gold will continue to rise while the crisis worsens further.

 

Other factors influencing gold prices

The demand for gold and, accordingly, the price are supported by the fact that the metal is the main tool for replenishing the reserves of the world’s central banks, which also want to protect their assets during crises. In 2018, the largest buyers of gold were Russia and China[5]. In March and April 2022, the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation also increased before the introduction of sanctions on gold transactions by the US Treasury[6].

On the other hand, it is necessary to take into account the volatility of gold in connection with the correlation with the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System (analogous to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation). When the refinancing rate[7] in the US rises, it strengthens the Dollar, the yield on bonds and Fed deposits rises, which reduces the attractiveness of gold and quotes fall[8]. Thus, foreign analysts emphasize that the price of gold is primarily determined by the actions of the US Federal Reserve. In second and third places are inflation and geopolitical factors[9].

 

Impulse for our clients

According to the Moscow Exchange and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, recently the purchase of gold has become a popular investment instrument among individuals. In selected months of 2023, more than 50% of all trading in Russia was by households[12].

If you also want to get a place in a gold and currency safe haven, protect your assets from economic and geopolitical shocks, and in the foreseeable future do not torture yourself with thoughts of inflation and the depreciation of your funds, then we offer the services of our company.

 

On your part — to decide on financial changes, on our part — to provide quality services and the feeling that your assets are safe and secure.

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[2] Lycos P. How precious metals showed themselves in 2023 // Gold reserve. 29.06.2023. [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.zolotoy-zapas.ru/news/market-analytics/kak-dragotsennye-metally-pokazali-sebya-v-2023-godu / (accessed: 09/18/2023)

[3] How and why to invest in precious metals and how to choose between gold and palladium // banki.ru . 08/16/2022. [electronic resource]. URL: https://www.banki.ru/news/daytheme/?id=10970564 (accessed: 09/18/2023)

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[6] Lukicheva O. Review of precious metals markets (April 4 — 10, 2023) // Opening investments. 11.04.2023. [Electronic resource]. URL: https://open-broker.ru/analytics/news/342533 / (accessed: 09/18/2023)

[7] Determines at what percentage the central bank provides loans to commercial banks

[8] Milkina A. How much will gold cost in 2023 and is it worth investing in it. Experts answer // banki.ru . 12/14/2022. [electronic resource]. URL: https://www.banki.ru/news/daytheme/?id=10977219 (accessed: 09/18/2023)

[9] Precious Metals Market: Global Industry Trends, Share, Size, Growth, Opportunity and Forecast 2023-2028 // imarc. [electronic resource]. URL: https://www.imarcgroup.com/precious-metals-market (accessed: 09/18/2023)

[10] The situation on the precious metals market in 2023 // aurumex. [electronic resource]. URL: https://aurumex.ru/news/150 (accessed: 09/18/2023)

[11] Gold was drawn to the stock exchange. Review // Interfax. 17.05.2023. [Electronic resource]. URL: https://www.interfax.ru/business/901877 (accessed: 09/18/2023)