Palladium: the world’s rarest precious metal

Gold, silver and platinum are popular among investors and ordinary people, but what do you know about palladium? In fact, this metal occupies an important place in the global economy and, in particular, in the production chains of leading companies in the world. Without palladium, many of the latest technologies, without which the modern world is hard to imagine today, would not have been implemented. In this analytical note, we will talk about palladium — its properties, application in the economy, quotes on leading exchanges, and also answer the question of why investing in this metal is worth your attention.


Palladium as an indicator of the state of the global economy

Palladium belongs to the group of so-called industrial metals, which means that it does not have intrinsic value like gold, platinum or silver, which are catalysts for jewelry making. Quotations for this metal are completely determined by supply and demand in industry, and therefore by the state of the world economy[1]. When leading industrial companies increase the pace and volume of production, create thousands of jobs, and the state stimulates the economy, the price of palladium increases.

This becomes obvious if we analyze the industrial applications of palladium. 80% of all palladium production is used in the automotive industry, namely in the production of catalytic converters (catalysts), which are built into the exhaust system of a car with an internal combustion engine (ICE) to neutralize 90% of the exhaust gases[2].

As you know, today the world economy is in a state of green transition, striving to use renewable energy sources, develop electric vehicles and curb the release of exhaust gases from internal combustion engines into the atmosphere. Despite the rapid pace of entry into the automotive industry, there are still many traditional cars[3], which is why palladium is a key link for countries leading the way in green policies.

Palladium is also used in electronics, dentistry, pharmaceuticals and jewelry. However, these applications are extremely small compared to the automotive industry.

The geographic distribution of palladium is extremely limited due to its rarity. This metal is the rarest among all other noble metals — its deposits in the world are 15 times less than platinum and 30 times less than gold[4]. In 2021, the leaders in the mining and production of palladium were South Africa (80 thousand tons), Russia (74 thousand tons), Canada (17 thousand tons) and the USA (14 thousand tons)[5]. On the other hand, the largest producer of palladium in 2022 was MMC Norilsk Nickel with 44% of all world production.


Statistical analysis of palladium quotes

Since 2016, the price of a troy ounce of palladium has grown steadily until 2019 — from 499 US dollars to 2271 US dollars, respectively[6]. This was due to increased production rates in the automobile industry and stricter exhaust emission regulations in Western countries and China.

Since January 2019, a structural crisis in the global economy began, caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Massive lockdowns and thousands of people losing their jobs have led to a decrease in the purchasing power of the population. In such circumstances, automakers began to reduce production volumes and accumulate stocks of palladium in their reserves, anticipating a prolonged crisis. Investors, also in shock, sold their assets. As a result, from January 2019 to February 2022, palladium quotes entered a volatility trend, either reaching a historical peak in April 2021 (2941 US dollars), or breaking through the bottom in November 2021 (1727 US dollars).

 Since February 2022 along with the start of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, the situation has changed significantly. The political crisis in Europe created another shock in the world economy, which was aggravated by the sanctions policy against Russia, as well as the energy crisis in Europe. In the context of the abandonment of cheap Russian hydrocarbons, the price of fuel has increased extremely, which has reduced the attractiveness of cars in the consumer market. If people did buy cars, compact cars with low fuel consumption and low exhaust emissions were a priority. Thus, palladium quotes entered a decline stage — from 2483 US dollars in February 2022 to 1169 US dollars in October 2023.

Current state of the palladium market

Thus, the price of palladium is determined by the following trends in the global economy: the spread of electric vehicles and the recession in the global economy are negatively affected (for example, inflation in the leading economies of the world); have a positive effect on the increase in the production rate of cars with internal combustion engines and the tightening of environmental standards on exhaust gas emissions into the atmosphere.

On the other hand, not all new technologies pose a threat to the palladium market. If palladium is not needed for electric vehicles, then palladium is required for the production of hydrogen-powered cars. Some experts call hydrogen cars the next level in the green transition. For comparison, the production of one hydrogen car requires up to 10 times more platinoids compared to cars with internal combustion engines: 25-30 g versus 3-5 g for a passenger car[7]. Thus, the development of this automotive sector could create a positive trend for palladium. However, hydrogen has not yet developed at such a rapid pace, so it is unlikely that it will determine palladium prices in the near future.

By 2023, the lifting of health restrictions in the PRC, increased production rates in the auto industry and attempts by central banks to lower interest rates to stimulate the economy were expected to create positive momentum for the palladium market. For example, in China, car sales volumes reached their historical maximum in 5 years[8].

However, analysts gave disappointing forecasts for the palladium market for the first half of 2023[9]. Thus, in the May forecast, Norilsk Nickel expected a palladium deficit of around 200 thousand ounces[10]. Leading analyst at Open Investments Andrey Kochetkov points out that the fall in the price of palladium is caused by automakers’ reserves from Covid times, which should be depleted in the second half of 2023. When this happens, Finam FG analyst Alexey Kalachev expects an increase in price to 1,500 US dollars, with which analyst Krasnozhenov agrees. Foreign analysts “imarc” also in their annual report on precious metals indicate a decrease in the average price of palladium by 14.3% compared to 2022[11].

In the short term, by 2024, Russian analysts indicate a price range for palladium in the region of 800-1500 US dollars. The low limit was set by analyst Kochetkov, who believes that the negative impact of electric vehicles will increase and, as a result, the demand for gasoline catalysts will decrease. Analytics for September for their clients, Bank of America predicted a decrease in the average price to 1,564 US dollars in 2025 and to 1,497 US dollars in 2026[12]. However, you should always remember that the largest supplier of palladium in the world, Norilsk Nickel, can invest palladium in its reserve fund, thus increasing the world price without reducing production volumes.

Investing in palladium

Investments in palladium are fraught with risks, since quotes are extremely volatile in relation to the state of the global economy and the automotive industry[13]. However, in short-term trading, with certain skills and patience, investors can earn much more than, for example, on gold, a reserve precious metal that is not subject to serious price fluctuations.


If you, dear investors, are confident in your abilities, understand how the automotive industry works, feel the economic crisis in your gut and are focused on making a profit in the short term, then the palladium market is for you. As always, on your part, the desire for financial changes, and on ours, high-quality and proven services.


[1] Lycos P. How precious metals showed themselves in 2023 // Gold reserve. 29.06.2023. [Electronic resource]. URL: / (date of request: 10.10.2023)

[2]  Global Precious Metals Market Price, Size, Report, Share, Growth: By Type: Gold, Silver, Palladium, Platinum, Rhodium; Regional Analysis; Market Dynamics: SWOT Analysis, Porter’s Five Forces Analysis, Key Indicators for Demand, Key Indicators for Price; Trade Data Analysis; Competitive Landscape; Industry Events and Developments; 2023-2028 // EMR. [electronic resource]. URL: (date of application: 10.10.2023)

[3] According to Norilsk Nickel, by the end of 2023, the global automotive market is expected to recover to 86 million units produced, and 76 million units of which will be cars with internal combustion engines

[4] Milkina A. Will platinum and palladium prices rise in 2023 and is it worth investing in them // . 11.01.2023. [Electronic resource]. URL: (date of application: 10.10.2023)

[5] Which Countries Produce the Most Gold, Silver, and Other Precious Metals? // Madison Trust Company. (undated). [electronic resource]. URL: / (date of request: 10.10.2023)

[6] CFDs on Palladium // TradingView. [electronic resource]. URL: / (date of request: 10.10.2023)

[7] World raw materials market: palladium // Gazprom Investments. 02/28/2023. [Electronic resource]. URL: / (date of request: 10.10.2023)

[8] In the same place

[9] Palladium has fallen to a four-year low // Vedomosti. 26.06.2023. [Electronic resource]. URL: (date of application: 10.10.2023)

[10] Global palladium market to swing to surplus in 2024, Nornickel says // Reuters. 31.05.2023. [Electronic resource]. URL: / (date of request: 10.10.2023)

[11]  Precious Metals Market: Global Industry Trends, Share, Size, Growth, Opportunity and Forecast 2023-2028 // imarc. [electronic resource]. URL: (date of application: 10.10.2023)

[12] World raw materials market: palladium // Gazprom Investments. 02/28/2023. [Electronic resource]. URL: / (date of request: 10.10.2023)

[13] How and why to invest in precious metals and how to choose between gold and palladium // . 08/16/2022. [electronic resource]. URL: (date of application: 10.10.2023)

Investment in gold

Today, many people talk about the investment attractiveness of precious metals, but this area seems inaccessible to the average person to enter the market and difficult to master. In this article, we will try to explain the nature of the gold market and show that everyone can successfully preserve their assets during periods of uncertainty.

Precious metals are chemical elements that are located in the upper crust of our planet. The high price of these resources is due to their rarity, the unique property of reacting poorly to oxidation and corrosion, as well as the significant complexity of their processing. Precious metals immediately attracted humanity with their aesthetic properties, which is why they laid the foundation for jewelry making. On the other hand, these chemical elements have useful chemical properties, so they are widely used in industry (automotive, solar panels, etc.). When talking about precious metals as an investment instrument, we traditionally mean gold, silver, platinum and palladium. Today, the precious metals market is divided between these elements by 30%, 20%, 20% and 20% respectively. The remaining 10% falls into the “other” category (copper and others). This article will analyze the most noble of them — gold.

Gold was once the sole reserve currency in the world economy, and then entered into a synthesis with the US Dollar. Despite the fact that in modern times gold is not part of the global economic system, it continues to gain popularity in the precious metals market.

Investors highlight positive price dynamics during global economic and geopolitical shocks as the main advantage of gold over stocks, bonds or bank deposits[1]. For these reasons, gold is commonly referred to as a “safe haven asset.” Those who do not want to risk their assets by investing in overly volatile instruments during a crisis prefer to store their funds in gold. Moreover, the profitability of gold exceeds bank deposits, since gold prices are positively affected by a decline in industrial production, corporate bankruptcy, increased inflation and political crises[2]. Historically, there has been a positive correlation between the length of the global crisis and an increase in gold prices. Experts also highlight independence from future cash flows as the main advantage of gold[3].

Over five years, the price of one troy ounce (31.1034768 grams) of gold increased by 60.80%, and by 16.06% per year[4]. To understand the reasons for such growth, it is necessary to identify the connection between the dynamics of quotes and events in the international arena. A case in point is the global economic crisis of 2008. At the beginning of the year, the price of gold was 926 US dollars, and reached its peak only on August 1, 2011 — 1825 US dollars (an increase of 197%). Then the price began to decline as the economy began to recover as a result of anti-crisis measures in the leading countries of the world.

A more relevant example is the COVID-19 pandemic. In January 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a state of emergency, the price of gold at that time was 1317 US dollars. Massive lockdowns and restrictions spread across the world, which inevitably created a shock for the economy; investors were afraid of uncertainty and were afraid to invest in companies in view of possible bankruptcy, so they kept their assets in gold. Thus, on August 3, 2020, the price of gold reached its historical peak of 2035 US dollars (an increase of 155%). Next comes another period of economic recovery and price reduction.

Today we are witnessing another crisis cycle in the world. In addition to economic problems such as the green transition, the energy crisis in Western countries, large-scale sanctions against opponents, high global inflation and a slowdown in the automotive industry. Geopolitical shocks are obvious — the Special Military Operation in Ukraine, the support of Ukraine by Western countries and, in general, the confrontation of the Western and non-Western blocs in world politics. This situation leads to the fact that the price of gold will continue to rise while the crisis worsens further.


Other factors influencing gold prices

The demand for gold and, accordingly, the price are supported by the fact that the metal is the main tool for replenishing the reserves of the world’s central banks, which also want to protect their assets during crises. In 2018, the largest buyers of gold were Russia and China[5]. In March and April 2022, the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation also increased before the introduction of sanctions on gold transactions by the US Treasury[6].

On the other hand, it is necessary to take into account the volatility of gold in connection with the correlation with the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve System (analogous to the Central Bank of the Russian Federation). When the refinancing rate[7] in the US rises, it strengthens the Dollar, the yield on bonds and Fed deposits rises, which reduces the attractiveness of gold and quotes fall[8]. Thus, foreign analysts emphasize that the price of gold is primarily determined by the actions of the US Federal Reserve. In second and third places are inflation and geopolitical factors[9].


Impulse for our clients

According to the Moscow Exchange and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, recently the purchase of gold has become a popular investment instrument among individuals. In selected months of 2023, more than 50% of all trading in Russia was by households[12].

If you also want to get a place in a gold and currency safe haven, protect your assets from economic and geopolitical shocks, and in the foreseeable future do not torture yourself with thoughts of inflation and the depreciation of your funds, then we offer the services of our company.


On your part — to decide on financial changes, on our part — to provide quality services and the feeling that your assets are safe and secure.



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[2] Lycos P. How precious metals showed themselves in 2023 // Gold reserve. 29.06.2023. [Electronic resource]. URL: / (accessed: 09/18/2023)

[3] How and why to invest in precious metals and how to choose between gold and palladium // . 08/16/2022. [electronic resource]. URL: (accessed: 09/18/2023)

[4] Gold Spot/ U.S. Dollar // TradingView. [electronic resource]. URL: / (accessed: 09/18/2023)

[5] Global Precious Metals Market Price, Size, Report, Share, Growth: By Type: Gold, Silver, Palladium, Platinum, Rhodium; Regional Analysis; Market Dynamics: SWOT Analysis, Porter’s Five Forces Analysis, Key Indicators for Demand, Key Indicators for Price; Trade Data Analysis; Competitive Landscape; Industry Events and Developments; 2023-2028 // EMR. [electronic resource]. URL: (accessed: 09/18/2023)

[6] Lukicheva O. Review of precious metals markets (April 4 — 10, 2023) // Opening investments. 11.04.2023. [Electronic resource]. URL: / (accessed: 09/18/2023)

[7] Determines at what percentage the central bank provides loans to commercial banks

[8] Milkina A. How much will gold cost in 2023 and is it worth investing in it. Experts answer // . 12/14/2022. [electronic resource]. URL: (accessed: 09/18/2023)

[9] Precious Metals Market: Global Industry Trends, Share, Size, Growth, Opportunity and Forecast 2023-2028 // imarc. [electronic resource]. URL: (accessed: 09/18/2023)

[10] The situation on the precious metals market in 2023 // aurumex. [electronic resource]. URL: (accessed: 09/18/2023)

[11] Gold was drawn to the stock exchange. Review // Interfax. 17.05.2023. [Electronic resource]. URL: (accessed: 09/18/2023)


Is silver a hedge against inflation?

Using silver as an investment instrument is attractive for those looking to expand their investment portfolio.

Silver, as a precious metal, has a long-standing reputation as a store of capital and as a hedge against inflation, and enjoys continued interest among investors.

However, for beginners who are just starting to invest in precious metals, this path may seem daunting.



In 2022-2023 investing in precious metals, especially silver, has gained popularity due to increased volatility in global markets and economies. Silver is an inflation hedge. It demonstrates resilience to maintaining value in the face of inflationary pressures, outperforming other asset classes. This makes silver an attractive investment option for those looking to protect their savings from inflation.

Additionally, investing in silver offers diversification benefits because its returns are not highly correlated with other assets such as stocks or bonds. By including silver in an investment portfolio, investors protect themselves from both inflation and deflation, which improves risk management. Unlike paper money, which is printed, the amount of silver is limited. Therefore, when the US dollar weakens due to money supply growth or inflation, the price of silver rises.

Another attractive aspect of investing in silver is liquidity: if necessary, it can be sold without significant losses. This makes silver one of the primary inflation hedges in the modern investment landscape.

What advantages does silver have over gold?

Throughout history, there has been no measurable relationship between silver and inflation. Many experts question silver as an inflation hedge, favoring alternative investments such as real estate and stocks. While it is difficult to say that there is a direct correlation between silver and inflation, there are benefits that make it worth considering including it in your investment portfolio:

  1. Availability: Silver is more affordable than gold on a per ounce basis. This makes it more accessible to a wide range of investors, including those with limited capital. For investors looking to start with a small investment, silver is a more practical option.
  2. Industrial Demand: Unlike gold, which is primarily a store of value, silver has a wide industrial use. It is used in electronics, solar panels, medical devices, etc. This industrial demand creates a more stable and diversified source of value for silver since it is not solely dependent on investment demand.
  3. Historical Performance: Silver exhibits higher volatility compared to gold, which plays into the hands of investors. During periods of economic uncertainty or runaway inflation, silver often experiences larger price fluctuations, potentially leading to higher returns for investors willing to take on more risk.
  4. Inflation Hedging: Both silver and gold are considered inflation hedges, but silver often outperforms gold in this regard. Silver’s value often keeps pace with or even outpaces inflation, making it an attractive choice for those seeking to protect their wealth from the ravages of inflation.

Expert forecasts for the silver market in 2023

Silver cost per ounce in USD. (March-September 2023)


Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at MKS PAMP GROUP, made forecasts for the silver market:

  1. Despite the looming threat of recession, both industrial enterprises and the public continue to show increased interest in purchasing silver. This demand is expected to act as a support mechanism, preventing the price of silver from falling below $22 per ounce before the end of the year.
  2. Forecasts show that industrial demand for silver is growing and could reach unprecedented levels. However, there are concerns about supply due to social unrest and labor disputes in Latin America and Mexico this year. These factors could result in a deficit in excess of 150 million ounces.
  3. Compared to gold, the availability of silver on exchanges and in LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) vaults is relatively limited. Simply put, there is less silver available for trade or use than gold.

A report from The Silver Institute notes that silver demand grew 18% last year, reaching an all-time high of 1.24 billion ounces. This growth has led to a supply shortage. In the future, the institute expects the silver deficit to continue, which coincides with Nicky Shiels’ forecasts.

The ARVAR group of companies is engaged in trading precious metals around the world. We offer access not only to the Russian market, but also to other 8 regions of the world, including the UAE and China. We are open to sharing our many years of experience and are ready to share our expertise in investing not only in silver, but also in other valuable metals.

We provide not only trading, but logistics, financial and analytical services to optimize clients’ investment strategies. Our advantages include our own financial institution and favorable price conditions for the purchase and sale of raw materials.

You can contact us through the form on the website or via email